COVID-19 is the economic equivalent of a wildfire.  The US economic landscape has blighted overnight and it will take time for new growth to appear.  So, I am stunned by the speculative timetables being put forth by politicians about when the US economy will get back to normal. Growth will reappear but it will look much different.  Here are some observations about the post-COVID 19 economy that you won’t hear in the media:

  1. COVID-19 layoffs will finish off the Baby Boomers presence in the corporate workforce.  Huge layoffs are being planned for later this year which will target employees 55+ years old.
  2. Colleges will be desperate to kill-off long-distance learning (LDL) trends. LDL enables low cost access to tertiary education and a serious threat to wildly overpriced college degrees. 
  3. The brick and mortar implosion hurts Trump’s re-election prospects.   Political uncertainty that wasn’t there three months ago is being generated by hundreds of thousands of unemployed non-essential workers
  4. Zoom Video Communications will either close below $50 a share at year end or be purchased.  Better positioned competitors have been asleep at the video conferencing switch but are now wide awake with plenty of cash to compete and decisively win.
  5. Asian economies have a decided advantage in reopening.  The quality of life in global society relies more than ever on the mastery of integrating digital systems with processes, thus executive capabilities outperform political leadership.
  6. Global trade barriers will be higher.  Six months ago, it would have been a longshot to consider a nation’s healthcare system as pivotal to its national security. 
  7. The food delivery paradigm evolves.  The home delivery model will evolve to entire family style meals based on healthy alternative menus with GPS precision.  
  8. COVID-19 came from Communist China.  The direct result of having the world’s largest export economy built on top of a rural society that retains medieval hygiene practices.
  9. The ecological imperative will be stalled.   Who has time to rally for climate change or compost when the rent is two months behind?
  10. The US debt bomb has been primed.  It is not sustainable for a government to cut taxes, increase spending, prop-up financial markets and underwrite the cost of a pandemic while average real household incomes fall.